• erthjpew1.pdf

  • His confusion was not a new phenomenon.He also hit for good averages and power when he did swing.Overall, he averaged .276/.408/.432, which was highly valuable then and would be equally so now.The Browns traded [him.Manager [Luke]](https://brain.huu.cz/capa-software-packages) Sewell would give him the hit sign and he’d take it, trying to get the base on balls.Laziest human being you ever saw.Players as diverse as Ted Williams and Frank The Big Hurt Thomas came in for the same criticism during their careers, but in baseball, what some would characterize as laziness is what generates runs.The Runners column indicates how many runners are on base and which bases they are on.123 depicts the bases as loaded, and so on.The subsequent three columns show how many runs teams scored, on average, when they achieved these conditions.Finally, with a runner on second and two outs, teams quite often did not score at all.Unsurprisingly, the more runners a team puts on base, the more runs it is likely to score.This would seem to be so obvious as not to need repeating, but from Bill DeWitt to Dusty Baker a great many baseball minds have failed to grasp this elementary aspect of the game.Fielding Runs Above Average attempts to quantify what a player contributed with his glove.As our Jeter card shows, despite winning multiple Gold Gloves, defense has always been the weakest aspect of Jeter’s game.Whether in the ballpark or in front of the television, the position of the observer changes the nature of his observations, as does the beginning position of the fielder, something that is never clear from television.A fielder, by dint of canny positioning, may make a hard play look easy, while poor positioning may make an easy play harder.How many plays an average player at the same position would have made given the same chances.When you frame the issues this way, you can see how difficult the problem is.The first goal is adequately addressed by current statistics or direct observation.The second is very difficult given the impossibility of knowing what one player might have done in the place of another.Thus, we carry on the struggle to define defensive ability with the information that is currently available.Conversely, for every 10 runs below average, he has subtracted one.Thus in Jeter’s worst seasons, he can be seen to have given away as many as two wins with his glove.These were outweighed by his offensive contributions, but diminished his overall value.If we are on the right track with our quantification of fielding runs, it suggests that Casey Stengel only got half the story right when he said, I don’t like them fellahs that drive in two runs and let in three, by which he meant players who were all bat and no glove.Here, at the extremes of the range of defensive success and failure, a player’s fielding abilities should be determinative of playing time.If a player can add three wins through run prevention alone, before his hitting is even considered, he is clearly worth playing.Conversely, a player who is costing the team three wins compared to the average player would have to do a great deal of hitting to justify his place in the lineup.However, such cases are few and far between.If we loosely define regular playing time as being equal to 450 plate appearances on the season, then there have been approximately 8,600 regular players from 1950 until today.Most major leaguers are neither so good nor so poor at fielding that a bad glove would dramatically negate the effect of a good bat or vice versa.Sometimes fans, broadcasters, and managers like to indulge in the unthinking hyperbole of saying, I bet our shortstop saved us 100 runs this year. The accurate response is that in any given season there aren’t enough difficult defensive opportunities that only a great shortstop at his peak would convert to save as many as 100 runs, but perhaps he could have saved, on the extreme high side, 25 runs more than the average player.If in doing so, he hit so poorly that he was 25 runs below average with the bat, then what have you gained?These only become apparent when considered in relationship to that environment.Again, this statistic takes park and league environments into account.The ultimate goal for all players is to contribute to the winning effort.The concept to grapple with here, and one that in my experience the uninitiated are likely to struggle with, is the idea of replacement level.In this case the uninitiated includes a certain Hall of Fame sportswriter.A replacement player, of course, but he’s mythical.Statistics zealots apparently love to deal with mythical or hypothetical players.The problem for those of us who prefer dealing with reality and actual human beings is we can’t buy into the idea of using mathematical formulas instead of real players.It’s like fantasy baseball.That stuff isn’t real either.Just as Goldilocks had to sample porridge that was too hot and too cold to know which was just right, we require a point of comparison to correctly perceive a player’s value.Sabermetrics has chosen the replacement player as its measuring stick, and despite Chass’s cavils, a ruler does not alter the truth of the object it is being used to measure.The expected level of performance a major league team will receive from one or more of the best available players who substitute for a suddenly unavailable starting player at the same position, who can be obtained with minimal expenditure of team resources.When teams suffer injuries to players for whom they have no promising replacement, or if they simply didn’t plan very well in terms of staffing a position, that is often the quality of player they end up having to accommodate in their lineup.The answer is somewhere between 75 and 80 percent of the average regular, depending on the position.In 1952, the Pittsburgh Pirates endured a 42–112 season.We finished last with you and we can finish last without you. With replacement level, we know that Kiner, who hit a strong .253/.400/.509 in 100 games but with poor defense and baserunning, was worth about three wins above replacement to the 1952 Pirates.Rickey was right that they could have finished last without him, but wrong in that without him they had no hope of finishing anywhere else.Doing so would actually give us a distorted picture that would be unfair to most players.As Woolner wrote, Since all the players who secure jobs are at or above replacement level, then their average performance must be higher than replacement level.A player with average performance is actually playing at a level few others can match players who are average are quite rare. In other words, the population of ballplayers is large enough, and being average so difficult, that players can be below average and still have value.Considering a player in a vacuum is no different than asking, How far is Hong Kong? without supplying any other point of reference.Do you mean, How far is Hong Kong from Beijing? From Hoboken? From Mars? Or more accurately, it’s like asking how far Hong Kong is from here when you don’t know where you are.When it comes to baseball, we frequently, incorrectly, assume that we don’t require a point of reference because our basic knowledge of the game has taught us to distinguish good from bad.Given a line like .295/.360/.500, we may feel that our almost a priori knowledge of the game is sufficient to tell us that this is a very good season, but that is not necessarily true, because the ground keeps shifting beneath us.The definition of good changes with each season, and it is only by knowing how far we are from some fixed point of reference that we can judge quality.Or to put it another way, you don’t know which bowl of porridge is the hottest or the coldest until you’ve sampled them all and understood their temperatures relative to each other.You can’t know what something’s quality is, and perhaps not even one’s own identity, until you understand where it exists within a larger continuum.In some of these cases, the replacement level is necessarily hypothetical, since we don’t have an absolute value for spouses, sportswriters, or politicians, but the baseball form is absolutely not hypothetical but instead a literal interpretation of relationships between levels of production in baseball players.What does vary is the exact formulation of wins above replacement and the weighting of its individual components, depending on which source you are looking at.The 10:1 ratio is also a generalization that may have specific exceptions.In this sense, wins above replacement is an approximation, but as long as it is internally consistent, the relative value of players is accurate.These minor variations in wins above replacement among competing formulae are often grasped at by skeptics as a reason to doubt the utility of the statistic as a whole.As Posnanski suggests, focusing on the fractions involved with wins above replacement causes many to miss the forest for the decimalsized trees.The correlation of runs to wins is well understood, as is the correlation between specific player actions and the generation or prevention of runs.The fractions are an artifact of that correlation, nothing more.They are the numerical embodiment of Emerson’s hobgoblin.It doesn’t like that they are fat and slow.Comparing oranges to apples is exactly what wins above replacement was created to do, and the ability to compare disparate talents like Ellsbury and Fielder is one of its chief assets.Fielder was well down the list with 5.2, a valuation that is entirely accurate, logical, and defensible, even if some may find it counterintuitive.However, we are comparing the players to the replacement level, and the replacement level is higher at Fielder’s position of first base than it is at Ellsbury’s position of center field because the defensive expectations are less than at any other position.The same isn’t true of center field, one of the game’s most demanding positions.As we have seen with Melky Cabrera, when a team plays a center fielder without the range to play the position it can suffer badly.This is clearly depicted in the company that Fielder and Ellsbury keep at their position.Fielder hit well, but so did many other first basemen, whereas the competition was much thinner for Ellsbury.If that replacement is a bit more agile on the bases and in the field, even more of the shortfall will be closed.This was the lesson of the Yankees’ championship teams of the late 1990s through 2001, which got very average production from Tino Martinez at first base, inconsistent hitting from Scott Brosius at third, had no regular left fielder, and endured the declining years of Paul O’Neill.They really tell us little about the player himself, and as such are both inessential and a distraction from the information we really need to know.These statistics go hand in hand.It is only a slight exaggeration to say that most successful hitting takes place as the result of line drives.Don Mattingly, the Dodgers’ manager and a former American League batting champion, said he preferred runs scored.Think about it, Mattingly said.Runs scored are influenced by other hitters in the lineup, so they’re not the most valuable measurement.The three players are roughly identical, right?

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